Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #768 of 1,000

P0272

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 44,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 346

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 654

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 410Deviation -R 3 244

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 654. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 334

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 909 to R 7 427
Finished ahead: 153 / 1,000 (15,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #763 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.779
Mean bets / session: 4.887
Loss multiplier: 1.0751×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,2% / 74,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 43749 wagers · RTP 108,65%

Craps / DiceR 5 23838 wagers · RTP 98,80%

American RouletteR 3 36127 wagers · RTP 19,82%

CrashR 2 68020 wagers · RTP 137,45%

European RouletteR 2 24315 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 06721 wagers · RTP 103,73%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 97916 wagers · RTP 80,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 91412 wagers · RTP 67,38%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 78913 wagers · RTP 8,94%

BaccaratR 7345 wagers · RTP 146,59%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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