Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #324 of 1,000

P0274

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 73,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 586

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 414

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 717Deviation R 302

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 414. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 615

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 580 to R 13 310
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #609 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.78
Mean bets / session: 3.173
Loss multiplier: 1.0761×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,4% / 51,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 75825 wagers · RTP 118,04%

BaccaratR 3 74625 wagers · RTP 63,41%

Craps / DiceR 2 37417 wagers · RTP 95,03%

European RouletteR 1 85812 wagers · RTP 87,67%

American RouletteR 1 72611 wagers · RTP 76,13%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 40910 wagers · RTP 10,01%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 76,92%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2709 wagers · RTP 324,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4983 wagers · RTP 60,54%

CrashR 4393 wagers · RTP 89,69%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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