Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #802 of 1,000

P0275

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 38,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 632

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 368

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 502Deviation -R 4 867

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 368. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 471

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 337 to R 16 639
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #771 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.523
Mean bets / session: 4.595
Loss multiplier: 1.0408×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,7% / 54,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 56538 wagers · RTP 107,09%

Craps / DiceR 7 80938 wagers · RTP 73,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 25922 wagers · RTP 122,80%

CrashR 2 42812 wagers · RTP 62,76%

BaccaratR 2 3179 wagers · RTP 79,93%

American RouletteR 2 23311 wagers · RTP 44,07%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 6787 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9755 wagers · RTP 63,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 5353 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies