Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #894 of 1,000

P0276

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 10,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 305

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 695

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 118Deviation -R 7 577

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 695. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 986

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 924 to R 23 643
Finished ahead: 190 / 1,000 (19,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #831 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.494
Mean bets / session: 4.991
Loss multiplier: 1.0154×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,8% / 63,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 66237 wagers · RTP 16,37%

BlackjackR 4 08339 wagers · RTP 80,92%

Craps / DiceR 3 57939 wagers · RTP 79,72%

American RouletteR 1 58213 wagers · RTP 9,10%

CrashR 1 55717 wagers · RTP 166,35%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 39317 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 37410 wagers · RTP 5,24%

BaccaratR 1 24813 wagers · RTP 90,54%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 01415 wagers · RTP 136,09%

Three-Reel SlotR 5287 wagers · RTP 16,86%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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