Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #694 of 1,000

P0277

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 45,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 681

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 319

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 930Deviation -R 3 389

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 319. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 000

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 745 to R 13 145
Finished ahead: 204 / 1,000 (20,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #702 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,79% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.535
Mean bets / session: 5.839
Loss multiplier: 1.0197×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,4% / 55,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 42971 wagers · RTP 86,06%

BlackjackR 5 39144 wagers · RTP 96,90%

European RouletteR 2 44820 wagers · RTP 128,55%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 30619 wagers · RTP 42,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 80117 wagers · RTP 92,45%

BaccaratR 1 64814 wagers · RTP 68,19%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 34614 wagers · RTP 43,54%

American RouletteR 1 11110 wagers · RTP 99,46%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0999 wagers · RTP 18,11%

CrashR 7816 wagers · RTP 98,40%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies