Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #714 of 1,000

P0278

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 29,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 366

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 634

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 004Deviation -R 3 630

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 634. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 436

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 459 to R 10 210
Finished ahead: 201 / 1,000 (20,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.291
Mean bets / session: 3.85
Loss multiplier: 1.0131×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,1% / 56,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 53037 wagers · RTP 94,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 67325 wagers · RTP 84,24%

Craps / DiceR 4 11923 wagers · RTP 85,17%

American RouletteR 2 18711 wagers · RTP 51,99%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 07011 wagers · RTP 9,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 75510 wagers · RTP 22,79%

BaccaratR 1 6929 wagers · RTP 84,41%

European RouletteR 1 5158 wagers · RTP 279,01%

CrashR 1 2958 wagers · RTP 55,62%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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