Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #791 of 1,000

P0279

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 10,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 868

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 132

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 609Deviation -R 5 523

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 132. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 477

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 635 to R 13 623
Finished ahead: 239 / 1,000 (23,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #671 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,01% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.771
Mean bets / session: 3.802
Loss multiplier: 1.0389×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,2% / 73,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 43637 wagers · RTP 98,74%

BlackjackR 4 34436 wagers · RTP 65,73%

CrashR 2 79724 wagers · RTP 44,76%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 90117 wagers · RTP 110,73%

American RouletteR 1 81414 wagers · RTP 56,95%

European RouletteR 1 62113 wagers · RTP 34,98%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9518 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4974 wagers · RTP 80,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 3574 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1592 wagers · RTP 96,89%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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