Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #653 of 1,000

P0280

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 61,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 272

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 728

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 663Deviation -R 2 065

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 728. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 927

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 393 to R 13 129
Finished ahead: 159 / 1,000 (15,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #746 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.327
Mean bets / session: 4.687
Loss multiplier: 1.0031×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,1% / 47,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 62936 wagers · RTP 73,25%

BlackjackR 3 73821 wagers · RTP 109,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 30033 wagers · RTP 6,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 55614 wagers · RTP 40,73%

American RouletteR 2 16212 wagers · RTP 195,56%

CrashR 1 80310 wagers · RTP 101,01%

European RouletteR 1 4958 wagers · RTP 75,65%

BaccaratR 1 4798 wagers · RTP 144,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4588 wagers · RTP 17,59%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2317 wagers · RTP 191,26%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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