Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #863 of 1,000

P0281

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 4,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 053

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 947

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 782Deviation -R 7 165

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 947. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 632

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 940 to R 15 809
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #736 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.617
Mean bets / session: 5.582
Loss multiplier: 1.012×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,3% / 75,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 5 11545 wagers · RTP 88,74%

European RouletteR 4 86946 wagers · RTP 42,27%

Craps / DiceR 4 37042 wagers · RTP 84,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 80224 wagers · RTP 24,13%

BaccaratR 1 88018 wagers · RTP 87,59%

American RouletteR 1 34213 wagers · RTP 86,74%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 28310 wagers · RTP 68,83%

Three-Reel SlotR 91210 wagers · RTP 92,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 6488 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5926 wagers · RTP 64,19%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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