Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #775 of 1,000

P0282

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 28,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 171

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 829

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 100Deviation -R 4 729

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 829. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 888

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 725 to R 18 009
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #699 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.253
Mean bets / session: 5.651
Loss multiplier: 1.0597×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,9% / 50,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 35138 wagers · RTP 94,03%

BlackjackR 4 44631 wagers · RTP 105,66%

American RouletteR 4 10325 wagers · RTP 83,43%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 60618 wagers · RTP 39,20%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 06812 wagers · RTP 73,55%

European RouletteR 2 00412 wagers · RTP 70,96%

BaccaratR 1 70610 wagers · RTP 126,31%

CrashR 1 69910 wagers · RTP 44,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5899 wagers · RTP 74,34%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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