Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #54 of 1,000

P0283

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 91,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19 107

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 9 107

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 236Deviation R 12 343

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 9 107. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 768

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 770 to R 17 294
Finished ahead: 203 / 1,000 (20,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #742 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.597
Mean bets / session: 5.287
Loss multiplier: 1.0487×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,8% / 67,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 40 99962 wagers · RTP 82,89%

Craps / DiceR 22 54438 wagers · RTP 99,04%

European RouletteR 11 98317 wagers · RTP 51,74%

CrashR 7 96517 wagers · RTP 100,51%

BaccaratR 6 91212 wagers · RTP 104,79%

American RouletteR 6 90012 wagers · RTP 34,17%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 31122 wagers · RTP 65,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 39018 wagers · RTP 731,69%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 2249 wagers · RTP 121,11%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 61,54%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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