Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #689 of 1,000

P0284

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 15,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 705

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 295

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 894Deviation -R 3 401

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 295. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 594

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 071 to R 7 242
Finished ahead: 215 / 1,000 (21,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #607 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,59% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.349
Mean bets / session: 3.831
Loss multiplier: 1.0398×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,1% / 69,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 46434 wagers · RTP 120,71%

Craps / DiceR 4 03730 wagers · RTP 90,19%

BaccaratR 3 03424 wagers · RTP 77,26%

European RouletteR 1 50912 wagers · RTP 45,20%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 46811 wagers · RTP 35,59%

American RouletteR 1 38311 wagers · RTP 68,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0929 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8226 wagers · RTP 126,88%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 6625 wagers · RTP 45,92%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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