Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #866 of 1,000

P0285

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 10,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 994

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 006

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 481Deviation -R 6 525

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 006. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 163

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 379 to R 12 895
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #760 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.799
Mean bets / session: 5.357
Loss multiplier: 1.0547×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 51,9% / 51,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 47357 wagers · RTP 92,03%

BlackjackR 7 53347 wagers · RTP 98,10%

Three-Reel SlotR 6 19940 wagers · RTP 59,07%

European RouletteR 4 22628 wagers · RTP 98,72%

CrashR 3 03418 wagers · RTP 84,21%

BaccaratR 2 77818 wagers · RTP 116,94%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 44127 wagers · RTP 24,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 91314 wagers · RTP 31,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1196 wagers · RTP 60,87%

American RouletteR 9177 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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