Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #36 of 1,000

P0286

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 93,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 25 396

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 15 396

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 875Deviation R 18 271

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 15 396. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 525

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 966 to R 19 833
Finished ahead: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #772 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.756
Mean bets / session: 3.185
Loss multiplier: 1.0563×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,6% / 50,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 20 63936 wagers · RTP 91,50%

BlackjackR 12 08623 wagers · RTP 106,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 47326 wagers · RTP 27,04%

American RouletteR 5 71611 wagers · RTP 255,91%

European RouletteR 4 7557 wagers · RTP 207,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 43818 wagers · RTP 66,09%

CrashR 2 9328 wagers · RTP 54,54%

BaccaratR 2 0034 wagers · RTP 100,85%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4703 wagers · RTP 112,73%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 2 040,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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