Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #859 of 1,000

P0288

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 4,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 161

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 839

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 081Deviation -R 6 759

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 839. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 943

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 737 to R 18 357
Finished ahead: 186 / 1,000 (18,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #748 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.893
Mean bets / session: 4.412
Loss multiplier: 1.0197×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,5% / 47,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 72252 wagers · RTP 107,18%

Craps / DiceR 6 51547 wagers · RTP 72,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 58341 wagers · RTP 91,38%

European RouletteR 1 97715 wagers · RTP 12,75%

CrashR 1 72012 wagers · RTP 99,71%

BaccaratR 1 69914 wagers · RTP 56,58%

American RouletteR 1 48013 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1539 wagers · RTP 3,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 09211 wagers · RTP 76,19%

Lottery / JackpotR 99011 wagers · RTP 29,09%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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