Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #492 of 1,000

P0290

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 73,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 223

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 777

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 403Deviation -R 374

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 777. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 646

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 489 to R 10 476
Finished ahead: 185 / 1,000 (18,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #735 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,36% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.645
Mean bets / session: 4.121
Loss multiplier: 1.0257×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,0% / 76,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 73436 wagers · RTP 74,67%

Craps / DiceR 6 48637 wagers · RTP 103,82%

American RouletteR 3 20417 wagers · RTP 50,81%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 90029 wagers · RTP 68,97%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 77015 wagers · RTP 67,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 36711 wagers · RTP 78,58%

European RouletteR 1 76611 wagers · RTP 266,02%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2137 wagers · RTP 79,23%

CrashR 1 0406 wagers · RTP 187,50%

BaccaratR 8875 wagers · RTP 98,05%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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