Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #842 of 1,000

P0291

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 19,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 803

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 197

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 155Deviation -R 6 042

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 197. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 819

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 221 to R 16 105
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #742 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.342
Mean bets / session: 4.791
Loss multiplier: 1.0693×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,3% / 52,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 93435 wagers · RTP 65,30%

BlackjackR 6 28129 wagers · RTP 104,69%

European RouletteR 5 70328 wagers · RTP 50,04%

American RouletteR 3 60518 wagers · RTP 72,95%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 33310 wagers · RTP 181,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 08311 wagers · RTP 103,84%

CrashR 1 7579 wagers · RTP 23,83%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 6609 wagers · RTP 22,83%

BaccaratR 1 6209 wagers · RTP 85,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 99710 wagers · RTP 60,18%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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