Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #14 of 1,000

P0293

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 99,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 38 781

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 28 781

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 195Deviation R 29 976

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 28 781. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 880

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 460 to R 8 828
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #695 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.572
Mean bets / session: 4.061
Loss multiplier: 1.0567×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,9% / 75,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 13 05252 wagers · RTP 105,77%

Craps / DiceR 7 27229 wagers · RTP 82,65%

CrashR 4 01616 wagers · RTP 128,13%

European RouletteR 3 76515 wagers · RTP 20,00%

BaccaratR 3 51414 wagers · RTP 111,43%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0088 wagers · RTP 142,31%

American RouletteR 1 7577 wagers · RTP 42,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 25,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 2 283,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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