Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #79 of 1,000

P0294

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 87,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 14 621

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 4 621

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 292Deviation R 5 913

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 4 621. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 447

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 808 to R 12 938
Finished ahead: 218 / 1,000 (21,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #668 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.509
Mean bets / session: 3.932
Loss multiplier: 1.009×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,7% / 79,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 13 42240 wagers · RTP 132,66%

BaccaratR 9 28628 wagers · RTP 98,12%

BlackjackR 6 78020 wagers · RTP 86,70%

European RouletteR 3 88512 wagers · RTP 57,97%

CrashR 3 82312 wagers · RTP 73,34%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 288,46%

American RouletteR 2 4287 wagers · RTP 87,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3454 wagers · RTP 169,77%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 20,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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