Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #60 of 1,000

P0295

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 92,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 778

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 778

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 169Deviation R 8 947

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 778. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 459

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 758 to R 11 043
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.582
Mean bets / session: 4.748
Loss multiplier: 1.0424×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,5% / 65,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 53735 wagers · RTP 97,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 35833 wagers · RTP 206,06%

BlackjackR 4 20627 wagers · RTP 107,48%

American RouletteR 3 26120 wagers · RTP 131,71%

BaccaratR 3 12720 wagers · RTP 88,15%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 97212 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 92012 wagers · RTP 140,53%

European RouletteR 1 63511 wagers · RTP 391,19%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 0036 wagers · RTP 17,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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