Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #630 of 1,000

P0296

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 68,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 768

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 232

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 925Deviation -R 1 307

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 232. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 047

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 235 to R 16 347
Finished ahead: 195 / 1,000 (19,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #754 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.858
Mean bets / session: 4.601
Loss multiplier: 1.0708×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,0% / 66,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 17254 wagers · RTP 95,76%

BlackjackR 8 31847 wagers · RTP 87,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 10231 wagers · RTP 5,53%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 97022 wagers · RTP 76,08%

BaccaratR 2 95318 wagers · RTP 74,33%

European RouletteR 2 52115 wagers · RTP 291,43%

American RouletteR 2 07914 wagers · RTP 136,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 05811 wagers · RTP 108,63%

CrashR 1 62710 wagers · RTP 96,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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