Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #403 of 1,000

P0297

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 77,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 140

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 860

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 343Deviation R 482

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 860. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 654

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 519 to R 15 805
Finished ahead: 198 / 1,000 (19,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #735 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,67% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.511
Mean bets / session: 5.005
Loss multiplier: 1.0183×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,2% / 77,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 16 48254 wagers · RTP 84,54%

BlackjackR 8 34227 wagers · RTP 52,07%

BaccaratR 5 51920 wagers · RTP 130,13%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 22713 wagers · RTP 344,65%

European RouletteR 3 22510 wagers · RTP 80,93%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 7139 wagers · RTP 109,23%

American RouletteR 2 69610 wagers · RTP 36,72%

CrashR 2 2648 wagers · RTP 51,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7077 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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