Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #131 of 1,000

P0298

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 82,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 444

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 444

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 200Deviation R 2 644

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 444. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 587

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 560 to R 11 429
Finished ahead: 227 / 1,000 (22,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #678 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.526
Mean bets / session: 3.809
Loss multiplier: 1.0292×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,3% / 64,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 7 57934 wagers · RTP 111,98%

Craps / DiceR 6 50129 wagers · RTP 96,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 29824 wagers · RTP 113,03%

CrashR 3 59616 wagers · RTP 195,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 12214 wagers · RTP 14,67%

American RouletteR 2 60812 wagers · RTP 87,62%

European RouletteR 2 23310 wagers · RTP 150,34%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1185 wagers · RTP 61,45%

BaccaratR 8954 wagers · RTP 49,89%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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