Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #864 of 1,000

P0299

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 11,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 031

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 969

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 564Deviation -R 6 405

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 969. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 490

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 500 to R 16 224
Finished ahead: 185 / 1,000 (18,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #771 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.68
Mean bets / session: 4.688
Loss multiplier: 1.0184×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,2% / 75,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 55043 wagers · RTP 85,50%

Craps / DiceR 6 06336 wagers · RTP 103,89%

CrashR 5 66135 wagers · RTP 56,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 80118 wagers · RTP 90,54%

BaccaratR 2 45416 wagers · RTP 42,99%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 10915 wagers · RTP 118,18%

American RouletteR 2 04416 wagers · RTP 73,34%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 65717 wagers · RTP 12,07%

European RouletteR 1 38511 wagers · RTP 8,81%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8286 wagers · RTP 72,15%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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