Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #881 of 1,000

P0300

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 8,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 566

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 434

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 012Deviation -R 7 421

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 434. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 291

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 661 to R 13 158
Finished ahead: 157 / 1,000 (15,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #803 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.653
Mean bets / session: 5.479
Loss multiplier: 1.0223×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,0% / 60,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 36345 wagers · RTP 81,69%

BlackjackR 3 78839 wagers · RTP 80,36%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 88245 wagers · RTP 33,80%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 58417 wagers · RTP 28,44%

European RouletteR 1 44615 wagers · RTP 15,56%

BaccaratR 1 37312 wagers · RTP 67,01%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 07812 wagers · RTP 5,84%

American RouletteR 95410 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 77313 wagers · RTP 118,78%

CrashR 73511 wagers · RTP 52,21%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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