Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #572 of 1,000

P0302

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 17,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 521

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 479

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 273Deviation -R 2 206

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 479. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 168

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 287 to R 5 292
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #450 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.675
Mean bets / session: 2.592
Loss multiplier: 1.0709×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,6% / 72,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 14813 wagers · RTP 98,01%

CrashR 1 3358 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1767 wagers · RTP 91,12%

Craps / DiceR 1 0026 wagers · RTP 163,67%

European RouletteR 8635 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8495 wagers · RTP 46,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 6814 wagers · RTP 35,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1651 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1651 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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