Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #542 of 1,000

P0303

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 31,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 791

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 209

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 399Deviation -R 1 810

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 209. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 541

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 697 to R 4 007
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #494 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,71% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.711
Mean bets / session: 2.974
Loss multiplier: 1.0174×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,8% / 49,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 98712 wagers · RTP 33,62%

BaccaratR 1 2367 wagers · RTP 140,61%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0156 wagers · RTP 41,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 6794 wagers · RTP 87,85%

Craps / DiceR 4933 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3492 wagers · RTP 147,85%

CrashR 3002 wagers · RTP 96,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2822 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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