Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #711 of 1,000

P0304

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 1,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 413

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 587

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 294Deviation -R 4 293

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 587. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 486

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 050 to R 5 716
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #487 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.738
Mean bets / session: 2.286
Loss multiplier: 1.0345×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,5% / 50,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 55013 wagers · RTP 58,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5848 wagers · RTP 67,07%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5378 wagers · RTP 14,57%

CrashR 8104 wagers · RTP 21,76%

BlackjackR 6704 wagers · RTP 69,25%

European RouletteR 3572 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2982 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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