Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #461 of 1,000

P0306

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 56,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 455

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 545

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 271Deviation -R 1 274

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 545. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 805

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 843 to R 7 130
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #522 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.577
Mean bets / session: 2.273
Loss multiplier: 1.0248×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,6% / 63,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 9509 wagers · RTP 134,05%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8674 wagers · RTP 41,80%

American RouletteR 6683 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 6553 wagers · RTP 93,89%

CrashR 4902 wagers · RTP 62,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4552 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4502 wagers · RTP 22,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1951 wagers · RTP 300,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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