Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #582 of 1,000

P0307

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 17,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 397

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 603

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 308Deviation -R 2 295

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 603. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 125

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 265 to R 5 121
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #443 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.627
Mean bets / session: 2.292
Loss multiplier: 1.0204×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,6% / 59,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 06614 wagers · RTP 72,70%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 35511 wagers · RTP 58,94%

Craps / DiceR 1 4106 wagers · RTP 163,40%

European RouletteR 9324 wagers · RTP 74,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 7113 wagers · RTP 34,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4682 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4542 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4482 wagers · RTP 137,28%

CrashR 2331 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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