Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #166 of 1,000

P0308

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 82,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 464

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 464

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 105Deviation R 569

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 464. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 401

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 496 to R 1 573
Finished ahead: 334 / 1,000 (33,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #331 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.325
Mean bets / session: 1.682
Loss multiplier: 1.0111×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 49,3% / 71,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6284 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 4783 wagers · RTP 32,22%

European RouletteR 3222 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3182 wagers · RTP 803,77%

CrashR 3152 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1701 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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