Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #187 of 1,000

P0309

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 75,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 245

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 245

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 214Deviation R 459

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 245. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 558

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 865 to R 2 290
Finished ahead: 315 / 1,000 (31,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #362 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,37% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.341
Mean bets / session: 1.881
Loss multiplier: 1.0694×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,6% / 73,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7695 wagers · RTP 235,24%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7385 wagers · RTP 152,04%

BaccaratR 5964 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2962 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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