Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #490 of 1,000

P0310

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 33,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 226

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 774

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 263Deviation -R 1 511

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 774. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 265

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 072 to R 2 822
Finished ahead: 210 / 1,000 (21,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #459 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.625
Mean bets / session: 2.755
Loss multiplier: 1.0251×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,3% / 63,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1868 wagers · RTP 95,13%

BaccaratR 9997 wagers · RTP 39,69%

European RouletteR 8736 wagers · RTP 30,70%

BlackjackR 7405 wagers · RTP 97,84%

American RouletteR 6364 wagers · RTP 67,45%

Craps / DiceR 5924 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3332 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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