Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #376 of 1,000

P0311

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 63,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 329

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 671

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 299Deviation -R 372

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 671. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 426

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 767 to R 4 955
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #478 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,36% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.489
Mean bets / session: 2.962
Loss multiplier: 1.0601×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,3% / 59,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 3957 wagers · RTP 27,10%

Craps / DiceR 1 1646 wagers · RTP 130,76%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1276 wagers · RTP 39,02%

BaccaratR 1 0755 wagers · RTP 122,79%

CrashR 7454 wagers · RTP 289,97%

American RouletteR 4382 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4302 wagers · RTP 84,19%

Three-Reel SlotR 3792 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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