Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #595 of 1,000

P0312

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 21,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 201

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 799

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 314Deviation -R 2 485

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 799. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 553

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 920 to R 5 709
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #492 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.408
Mean bets / session: 2.921
Loss multiplier: 1.0164×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,8% / 55,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 1028 wagers · RTP 34,82%

BaccaratR 1 9298 wagers · RTP 76,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8527 wagers · RTP 41,85%

BlackjackR 7353 wagers · RTP 215,31%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7273 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5072 wagers · RTP 200,00%

European RouletteR 2861 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2361 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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