Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #432 of 1,000

P0317

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 22,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 830

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 170

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 91Deviation -R 1 079

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 170. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 589

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 899 to R 2 506
Finished ahead: 291 / 1,000 (29,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #365 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.625
Mean bets / session: 1.848
Loss multiplier: 1.0684×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,6% / 62,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 0367 wagers · RTP 54,98%

Craps / DiceR 5634 wagers · RTP 51,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4263 wagers · RTP 108,66%

BlackjackR 3202 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1611 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1541 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1351 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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