Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #259 of 1,000

P0318

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 67,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 860

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 140

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 80Deviation -R 60

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 140. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 486

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 589 to R 1 505
Finished ahead: 281 / 1,000 (28,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #350 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.31
Mean bets / session: 2.525
Loss multiplier: 1.0433×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,2% / 46,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 8005 wagers · RTP 127,22%

BaccaratR 4793 wagers · RTP 94,36%

Craps / DiceR 4523 wagers · RTP 136,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3322 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1651 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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