Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #191 of 1,000

P0319

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 212

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 212

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 118Deviation R 330

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 212. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 806

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 289 to R 3 266
Finished ahead: 277 / 1,000 (27,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #402 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.412
Mean bets / session: 1.907
Loss multiplier: 1.0218×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,8% / 65,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9684 wagers · RTP 261,88%

BaccaratR 7083 wagers · RTP 60,87%

American RouletteR 4932 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2601 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2541 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2481 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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