Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #478 of 1,000

P0320

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 4,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 335

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 665

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 173Deviation -R 1 492

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 665. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 619

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 618 to R 1 272
Finished ahead: 208 / 1,000 (20,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #375 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.535
Mean bets / session: 1.754
Loss multiplier: 1.0038×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,2% / 48,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5545 wagers · RTP 40,79%

BaccaratR 3363 wagers · RTP 131,16%

European RouletteR 2462 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2312 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2222 wagers · RTP 76,71%

CrashR 2042 wagers · RTP 64,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1211 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1191 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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