Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #226 of 1,000

P0321

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 73,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 007

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 119Deviation R 125

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 547

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 633 to R 1 871
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #361 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.319
Mean bets / session: 2.396
Loss multiplier: 1.0183×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,4% / 53,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 7025 wagers · RTP 89,89%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5714 wagers · RTP 75,01%

American RouletteR 3042 wagers · RTP 148,03%

BaccaratR 2892 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1571 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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