Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #514 of 1,000

P0322

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 20,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 053

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 947

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 221Deviation -R 1 726

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 947. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 876

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 949 to R 4 596
Finished ahead: 290 / 1,000 (29,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #410 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.376
Mean bets / session: 1.97
Loss multiplier: 1.0592×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,9% / 45,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1254 wagers · RTP 90,06%

BlackjackR 8703 wagers · RTP 150,00%

BaccaratR 7903 wagers · RTP 68,37%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 4902 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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