Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #243 of 1,000

P0323

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 73,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 921

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 79

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 308Deviation R 229

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 79. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 026

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 802 to R 2 291
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #426 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.402
Mean bets / session: 2.414
Loss multiplier: 1.0216×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,9% / 58,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 23814 wagers · RTP 107,87%

BaccaratR 1 6147 wagers · RTP 117,29%

Craps / DiceR 7223 wagers · RTP 129,64%

European RouletteR 2811 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2151 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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