Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #439 of 1,000

P0324

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 29,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 746

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 254

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 260Deviation -R 994

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 254. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 671

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 250 to R 2 056
Finished ahead: 295 / 1,000 (29,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #381 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,10% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.486
Mean bets / session: 1.874
Loss multiplier: 1.0592×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,7% / 55,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 4857 wagers · RTP 104,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7814 wagers · RTP 44,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 5843 wagers · RTP 66,78%

CrashR 3912 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2301 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2091 wagers · RTP 500,00%

American RouletteR 2061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1951 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1891 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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