Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #486 of 1,000

P0326

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 25,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 268

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 732

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 96Deviation -R 1 636

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 732. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 045

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 589 to R 3 567
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #429 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.3
Mean bets / session: 2.66
Loss multiplier: 1.0472×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,3% / 55,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5603 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3852 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3832 wagers · RTP 116,49%

BaccaratR 3782 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3722 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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