Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #530 of 1,000

P0327

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 44,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 905

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 095

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 435Deviation -R 1 660

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 095. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 828

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 577 to R 6 499
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #523 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,76% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.776
Mean bets / session: 2.951
Loss multiplier: 1.003×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,7% / 75,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 24013 wagers · RTP 149,80%

Craps / DiceR 2 0088 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 1 7417 wagers · RTP 70,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5046 wagers · RTP 80,21%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4526 wagers · RTP 42,05%

CrashR 1 2265 wagers · RTP 50,37%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7443 wagers · RTP 33,60%

BlackjackR 5022 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 5022 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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