Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #493 of 1,000

P0328

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 41,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 222

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 778

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 539Deviation -R 1 239

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 778. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 259

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 117 to R 5 145
Finished ahead: 293 / 1,000 (29,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #461 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.65
Mean bets / session: 2.386
Loss multiplier: 1.0279×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,0% / 78,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 15720 wagers · RTP 71,07%

BaccaratR 1 6318 wagers · RTP 111,65%

CrashR 1 2646 wagers · RTP 157,83%

Three-Reel SlotR 6893 wagers · RTP 15,82%

European RouletteR 6123 wagers · RTP 72,88%

BlackjackR 4332 wagers · RTP 51,73%

Craps / DiceR 4262 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 133,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2291 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 2151 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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