Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #721 of 1,000

P0329

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 3,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 269

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 731

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 538Deviation -R 4 193

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 731. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 803

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 599 to R 6 520
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #523 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.748
Mean bets / session: 2.597
Loss multiplier: 1.0469×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,8% / 52,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 24612 wagers · RTP 75,20%

BaccaratR 1 7578 wagers · RTP 33,18%

American RouletteR 1 6078 wagers · RTP 35,28%

BlackjackR 1 2236 wagers · RTP 132,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1385 wagers · RTP 43,94%

CrashR 8844 wagers · RTP 47,09%

Craps / DiceR 8563 wagers · RTP 135,75%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6913 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4662 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies