Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #177 of 1,000

P0333

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 82,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 336

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 336

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 150Deviation R 487

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 336. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 600

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 918 to R 1 733
Finished ahead: 286 / 1,000 (28,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #370 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,08% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.671
Mean bets / session: 1.023
Loss multiplier: 1.0296×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,3% / 54,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5818 wagers · RTP 108,53%

BaccaratR 8014 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4072 wagers · RTP 121,01%

Craps / DiceR 2131 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2011 wagers · RTP 100,00%

CrashR 2011 wagers · RTP 500,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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