Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #422 of 1,000

P0335

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 51,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 923

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 077

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 121Deviation -R 956

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 077. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 114

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 746 to R 4 396
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #442 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.52
Mean bets / session: 2.329
Loss multiplier: 1.0257×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,9% / 48,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 8705 wagers · RTP 37,21%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7464 wagers · RTP 33,52%

BlackjackR 5463 wagers · RTP 130,04%

Three-Reel SlotR 5233 wagers · RTP 81,26%

CrashR 3492 wagers · RTP 96,28%

Craps / DiceR 1881 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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