Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #360 of 1,000

P0336

Medium bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 55,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 415

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 585

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 121Deviation -R 464

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 585. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 737

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 118 to R 2 326
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #389 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.337
Mean bets / session: 1.616
Loss multiplier: 1.0256×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,8% / 48,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6913 wagers · RTP 68,89%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4532 wagers · RTP 164,86%

CrashR 4522 wagers · RTP 55,59%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4202 wagers · RTP 47,86%

European RouletteR 2441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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